Joe's

Monday, July 12, 2004

What are you doing?

Philippines Announces Pullout to Save Iraq Hostage
This is a huge mistake if it actually works out that way. I hope it's some kind of ploy to find out who is doing this.

The skeleton of an argument against this:
Iraq needs help from other countries.
The Philippines pullout would put more political pressure from citizen protests on other countries to pull out their troops when their citizens are taken captive.
The Philippines just had an election in which the incumbent President Arroyo won a new mandate.
This puts the Philippines in a relatively strong political position.
Other countries will likely be in weaker political positions.
Some of the countries will break under the pressure and pull their troops out as well.
Success breeds success.
Iraq doesn't exist in a vacuum.
Success in Iraq cannot be confined to those borders.
There is not a causal relationship between the deployment of Philippines humanitarian forces and the violence the hostage takers/beheaders have been exercising in the last months.
Success breeds success.
These people will take even more hostages.
This one person may be saved, but a lot more people are going to die because of it.
I'm sorry for this guy, but pulling out is exactly the wrong response.

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