Spinning addendum

After reading through my entry on the stoic French response to their alleged terror threat (I told you blogging was narcissistic.), I realized I didn't mention one of the most basic possible motivations to downplaying the threat. It's in their interests to downplay the threat for financial reasons. The threat of terrorist attacks can do a great deal of economic damage. Consider why P. Bush so inspiringly urged everyone to go shopping for America after 9-11. What P. Bush did clumsily and directly the French attempted indirectly by just telling people there was no threat, subtext-carry on with your normal lives. For more anecdotal evidence look no further than the present situation in Saudi Arabia following the last weeks and months of brutality there.

This brings up an interesting point relating to the U.S. situation. AG Ashcroft has issued so many warnings that thankfully have not been realized that the financial markets barely blink when he issues one now. It's more difficult in the absence of a measuring mechanism equivalent to the stock market to determine whether these warnings have effected a greater level of fear among the general public depressing consumer spending. The Admin seems to be increasing the frequency and harshening the tone of their warnings for an attack this summer. I would be surprised if this didn't have some kind of negative effect on travel this summer (also depressing travel will be the gas prices). The economy related to summer travel is nothing to sneeze at.

The irony is that if the summer threats are being overstated for political gain, one can't help but wonder and hope at the same time, this could hurt the Bush campaign in the Fall. If consumer fear significantly depresses consumer spending in the summer the Kerry campaign will jump on it saying that the recovery is already over and we're headed back to the poorhouse because of Bush economic policies. The numbers for the summer will probably start to be estimated and compiled around election time. In contrast to AG Ashcroft's warnings, the markets will react to such news.