A real three-party system in the U.S.?
There has been speculation that John Kerry might ask John McCain to be his running mate. Personally, I would rather see Tom Vilsack in that position, but I can see why people are excited at the possibility of a dream team ticket against Bush. A Kerry-McCain ticket would have a hard time losing. The consequences of such a combination could be very interesting.
Being that the two would be running against Bush, the combination would probably be more Democratic leaning to begin with than Republican. Such a division would be strengthened by the Republican will to exact revenge on a traitor. But the Republicans would be in a weakened position and would probably have trouble punishing McCain.
In the face of what would likely be seen as the end of the neoconservative wing of the Republican party the right side of the Republican party would maneuver to regain the power they've lost within the party within the last four years. If successful this could prompt an exit from the Republican party by people with some of the same complicated relationships to the party as McCain(i.e. Chuck Hagel, Schwarzeneggar, Arlen Specter).
The likelihood of such a scenario would be increased if at the same time something similar was happening on the other side of the aisle. There is a significant portion of the Democratic party that is not pleased with their movement toward the right. Howard Dean was their representative in the primaries. If during the first two-four years of a Kerry-McCain administration Dean's characterization of Kerry as 'Bush Light' is strengthened by further movement to the right then the 'democratic wing of the Democratic Party' as Dean called it could conceivably break off as well.
It could also go the other way. The Democrats could be so pleased with being in power that they could easily forget that they wanted to be different than the present administration. Being in power is an end in itself in today's politics. Instead of working to stir up their own party they turn their attention to securing a permanent majority.
But if the displeasure of the right comes together with the displeasure of the left and some measure of success in a Kerry-McCain administration we could have three relatively even parties on our hands. I'm not sure if such a situation would be desirable. The implications of a three party system would be dramatic, but for now I'll stop with speculation about the consequences of speculation rather than going into three levels of speculation.
Being that the two would be running against Bush, the combination would probably be more Democratic leaning to begin with than Republican. Such a division would be strengthened by the Republican will to exact revenge on a traitor. But the Republicans would be in a weakened position and would probably have trouble punishing McCain.
In the face of what would likely be seen as the end of the neoconservative wing of the Republican party the right side of the Republican party would maneuver to regain the power they've lost within the party within the last four years. If successful this could prompt an exit from the Republican party by people with some of the same complicated relationships to the party as McCain(i.e. Chuck Hagel, Schwarzeneggar, Arlen Specter).
The likelihood of such a scenario would be increased if at the same time something similar was happening on the other side of the aisle. There is a significant portion of the Democratic party that is not pleased with their movement toward the right. Howard Dean was their representative in the primaries. If during the first two-four years of a Kerry-McCain administration Dean's characterization of Kerry as 'Bush Light' is strengthened by further movement to the right then the 'democratic wing of the Democratic Party' as Dean called it could conceivably break off as well.
It could also go the other way. The Democrats could be so pleased with being in power that they could easily forget that they wanted to be different than the present administration. Being in power is an end in itself in today's politics. Instead of working to stir up their own party they turn their attention to securing a permanent majority.
But if the displeasure of the right comes together with the displeasure of the left and some measure of success in a Kerry-McCain administration we could have three relatively even parties on our hands. I'm not sure if such a situation would be desirable. The implications of a three party system would be dramatic, but for now I'll stop with speculation about the consequences of speculation rather than going into three levels of speculation.
posted by joe at
9:56 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home